JockItch Sports

Why Is Florida State Only a 7-Point Favorite at Virginia? Let’s Break It Down.

Florida State enters tonight’s matchup ranked No. 8 in the AP Poll, riding high after a dominant start to the season. They lead the nation in scoring at 58 points per game, and their offense ranks in the top 10 across nearly every metric—except passing, where they average 265.7 yards per game, just 81st nationally. That stat tells the story: FSU relies heavily on its ground game and the dynamic playmaking of quarterback Tommy Castellanos, a physical force who powers a rushing attack averaging 363 yards per game, 4th in the country.

Defensively, the Seminoles are stout—11th in total yards allowed, giving up just 4.2 yards per play. However, they struggle to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and are prone to costly mistakes, averaging 44.7 penalty yards per game.

Virginia, meanwhile, is unranked but dangerous. They’re at home, hungry for a signature win, and they hold a clear edge in the passing game—313 yards per game, top 15 nationally. While their rushing attack isn’t as explosive (251 yards per game), their offense is balanced and efficient. Defensively, they allow just 213.3 passing yards per game, and they’ve shown discipline with only 31.5 penalty yards per game.

So why the tight spread? Because Virginia has the formula to make this uncomfortable for FSU:

• Play a clean, disciplined game
• Leverage their strong pass defense
• Use home-field energy to control tempo
• Capitalize on FSU’s penalty issues and lack of pressure

Prediction: If Florida State plays clean, pressures the quarterback, and shows the physical dominance we saw against Alabama, they win. If not, Virginia has every chance to shock the nation. This game will be physical, explosive, and closer than the rankings suggest.

Final Score: Florida State 34, Virginia 21 The Seminoles prove Alabama wasn’t a fluke.